☕ DrinkCoffeeAndProfit
Smart money moves before breakfast
Inspiration Quote for the Day
“The price of anything is the amount of life you exchange for it.”
— Henry David Thoreau
The Morning Ritual
Americans Stopped Waiting for Prices to Fall. That Changes Everything About Your Money.
My neighbor put a new patio set on his credit card last week. I asked him if it was on sale. He laughed. “Nothing goes on sale anymore,” he said. “I stopped waiting six months ago.” He is not alone. Something shifted in the American consumer this spring. Not confidence. Not optimism. Something quieter. People gave up on cheaper.
Consumer sentiment just hit `44.8` on the University of Michigan index. That is the lowest reading in `74` years of data. And yet spending keeps climbing. Record travel. Record credit card balances. Record Buy Now, Pay Later usage. Those two facts do not make sense together. Unless you understand what actually changed.
Partner Message
Dear Reader,
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang recently said something that shocked most investors …
Stating that robotics is the tech giant’s biggest opportunity after AI.
“We’re working towards a day where there will be billions of robots, hundreds of millions of autonomous vehicles and hundreds of thousands of robotic factories that can be powered by Nvidia technology,” Huang said.
The market reacted …
Helping Nvidia become the world’s first five-trillion-dollar company.
Thanks to its entry into the lucrative robotics market.
But here’s what the headlines missed …
Nvidia didn’t do this alone.
And if history is any indicator …
Nvidia’s $7 silent partner could be due for a big move up.
Michael Robinson
Michael Robinson
Weiss Ratings
In One Sip
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to `44.8` in May. The lowest reading since the survey began in `1952`. `57%` of consumers said high prices are eroding their personal finances.
AAA projected a record `45` million Americans would travel for Memorial Day. `39.1` million drove, with gas at `$4.50` a gallon.
Credit card debt stands at `$1.25` trillion. The average APR is `21%`. Total household debt hit a record `$18.8` trillion in Q1 2026.
Year-ahead inflation expectations climbed to `4.8%`. Long-run expectations hit `3.9%`, well above the `2.8%` to `3.2%` range from all of 2024.
`47%` of Buy Now, Pay Later users missed a payment in the past year. More than half say they cannot make ends meet without it. Americans are not spending because they feel rich. They are spending because they stopped believing cheaper is coming.
Why It Matters for Your Money
Three years ago, your financial advisor said “be patient, prices will normalize.” Grocery prices did not normalize. Gas did not normalize. Insurance premiums did not normalize. The American consumer finally internalized that message. So now the calculus flipped: buy today, because tomorrow it costs more.
Run the numbers on what that mindset costs. A family carrying `$6,700` on a credit card at `21%` APR pays `$1,407` a year in interest alone. That is a car payment going nowhere. Credit card balances surged `63%` in five years, from `$770` billion in early 2021 to `$1.25` trillion today. People are not paying down debt. They are adding to it with every swipe.
Meanwhile, `47%` of Buy Now, Pay Later users missed at least one payment this year. Some are splitting a `$40` grocery order into four installments. Think about that for a second. The tool designed for flat-screen TVs is now being used for eggs and bread.
The Conference Board reported yesterday that two-thirds of Americans say they are cutting back. But the spending data says the opposite. I think the disconnect is simple: people say they are cutting back because they feel guilty. Then they spend anyway because they do not believe waiting helps.
The Wealth Angle
I have watched this pattern before. In the late 1970s, Americans rushed to buy cars, appliances, and houses because they expected everything to cost more next month. Economists called it “inflation expectations becoming unanchored.” Normal people called it common sense. When waiting costs you money, you stop waiting.
That is exactly what the Michigan survey showed. Long-run inflation expectations jumped to `3.9%` in May, up from `3.5%` in April. That is the fastest one-month climb in years. And it is well above every reading from 2024. The consumer has stopped trusting that prices will stabilize. That belief, once it spreads, is self-fulfilling. People spend faster, which pushes prices higher, which confirms the belief.
Here is the part the stock market has not priced in. This spending is not strength. It is surrender. Tired consumers pile up debt that shows up on the other side of the cycle as defaults, tighter lending, and a slower economy. The airport was full last weekend. So was every credit card statement in the terminal.
☕ Key Insight:
Record spending alongside record-low confidence is not resilience. It is a population that gave up on prices falling and started borrowing against tomorrow. The last time inflation expectations broke this far above trend, the Fed had to raise rates until something cracked.
Coffee Break Move
If you are comfortable: Open your credit card statement and your brokerage app side by side. Add up every dollar in revolving debt. If that number is growing while your investments sit flat, the market is not making you wealthier. Your interest payments are making your bank wealthier. Pay down the highest-rate card before you add another position.
If you are stretched: Delete one Buy Now, Pay Later app today. Not all of them. One. The one you use for things you do not need. That small decision breaks the cycle of splitting purchases you cannot afford into payments you cannot track.
My neighbor is happy with his patio set. It looks good. But that credit card statement is coming in three weeks, and the APR does not care about the weather. The real edge is not buying before prices rise. The real edge is knowing when the fear of missing out is costing you more than the thing itself.

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