☕ DrinkCoffeeAndProfit
Smart money moves before breakfast
Inspiration Quote for the Day
“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”
— Warren Buffett
The Morning Ritual
They Sold the Fear. Now They’re Buying the Hype.

I watched this happen in 2020. I watched it in 2022. And I’m watching it again right now.

Three weeks ago, nobody wanted stocks. The Iran war. Oil above `$120`. Inflation climbing. My neighbor told me he moved everything to cash. “Just until things calm down.” Then a ceasefire dropped. The Strait of Hormuz reopened. Oil crashed `-10%` in one day. And the S&P blew past `7,000`. Now that same neighbor wants back in. At the top. With everyone else. I’ve seen this movie. The ending never changes.
In One Sip
► S&P 500 reclaimed `7,000` last Tuesday. Gained +`4.5%` for the week. Third straight winning week.
► Retail buying surged from the `10th` percentile to the `55th` in days. JPMorgan’s data. Not mine. That’s a stampede.
► Iran opened the Strait — temporarily. For the ceasefire only. That word “temporarily” matters more than the market thinks.
► Forward P/E ratio: `22.5`. The `10`-year average: `18.6`. Stocks are priced for perfection. Perfection rarely shows up.
► The one nobody’s watching: Cleveland Fed inflation forecast just hit `3.58%`. Gas is `$4.11`. The Fed has no reason to cut. And maybe a reason to raise.
Why It Matters for Your Money

Here is the pattern. It repeats every cycle.

Bad news hits. Regular people panic. They sell — or they freeze. Then things recover. Headlines flip. Green numbers everywhere. And suddenly the same people rush back in. At higher prices. For the same stocks they dumped weeks ago.

JPMorgan is tracking it in real time. Retail was dead quiet at the March bottom. Now they’re flooding in at the top. Single-stock buying hit the `71st` percentile. That’s not investing. That’s chasing.

`51%` of retail investors admit FOMO drives their trades. `78%` trade off headlines. Think about that. Nearly `8` out of `10` people are making money decisions based on whatever CNN said that morning.

The market might go higher. It might not. That is not the point. The point is why you are buying. If the answer is “because it went up” — you do not have a plan. You have an impulse.
The Wealth Angle

Ask yourself one question. Who is not buying right now?

Warren Buffett spent the last year selling. He is sitting on over `$300` billion in cash at Berkshire. Druckenmiller dumped Nvidia and Palantir well before this rally. These are men who built generational wealth by buying when people were terrified and selling when people were thrilled.

Right now, they are holding cash. And retail investors are sprinting past them into a market priced at `22.5` times forward earnings. The `10`-year average is `18.6`. That gap only holds if everything goes right. Every earnings beat. Every ceasefire extension. Every inflation print coming in soft.

But here is what nobody on CNBC will tell you this morning. Inflation just jumped to `3.3%` in March. The Cleveland Fed sees it heading to `3.58%`. Gas is already at `$4.11`. That is not the backdrop for rate cuts. That is the backdrop for rate hikes. And the market is not priced for that. Not even close.

Funny how that story is buried under all the confetti about `7,000`.
☕ Key Insight:
The people who kept investing through March — through the war, the oil shock, the panic — did not need a ceasefire to feel confident. They had a system. The people scrambling to buy now? They are paying a premium for the same stocks they were too scared to own three weeks ago. That premium is the exact cost of not having a plan.
Coffee Break Move

Open your brokerage app right now. But ignore the green. Look at when you last put money in. Was it March? During the ugly part? Then close the app. You are fine.

Was it months ago? Are you itching to jump in now because the number feels good? Then do this instead. Pick your next `3` contribution dates. Set them to auto. Same amount. Same interval. No matter what the headlines say. Then put the phone down and finish your coffee.

The wealthiest investors I know do not have better instincts. They have better habits. That is the whole edge.

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