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☕ DrinkCoffeeAndProfit
Smart money moves before breakfast
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Inspiration Quote for the Day
“Inflation is taxation without legislation.”
— Milton Friedman
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The Morning Ritual
Your Grocery Bill Is $1,300 Higher Than It Was in 2020. The Prices Are Not Coming Back.
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I walked through my usual grocery store this weekend. Same cart. Same list. Same store I have been going to for eight years. The receipt was `$147`. Two years ago that identical cart was `$118`. I did not add a single item. I did not upgrade anything. The store just decided everything costs more now and I am supposed to be fine with it.
The official number says food inflation slowed to `2%` this year. That sounds like the problem is almost over. It is not. That `2%` is stacked on top of `25%` since 2020. Slowing down is not the same as going back. And nobody in Washington is talking about going back.
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· · · Partner Message · · ·
Washington Is Betting More Than the Company Is Worth
Here’s a number that shouldn’t be possible.
On May 21, 2026, a federal board voted unanimously to lend roughly $3 billion to one American mining company. That loan is bigger than the company’s entire market cap.
Think about what that says. The people who spent months inside this deal, with access to every drill report and every projection, decided this company deserves more capital than the market thinks the whole business is worth.
One of those valuations is wrong. The papers get signed in the second half of this year. After that, the market does the correcting.
Get the Name and Ticker Before the Signature
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In One Sip
► The average American household spends `$519` a month on groceries, according to BLS data. That is `$6,228` a year. In 2020 it was closer to `$410`. That gap is `$1,308` a year you did not vote for.
► A dozen eggs cost `$1.50` in January 2020. The national average is now above `$3.50`. That is a `133%` increase. Ground beef went from `$4.50` a pound to above `$6`. The size of the package got smaller too.
► The CEO of Kroger — the largest standalone grocery chain in America — said publicly that prices “have to come down.” That is not generosity. That is a company watching its customers walk across the parking lot to Aldi.
► S&P 500 futures opened Monday slightly higher. The 10-year yield sits at `4.52%`. VIX at `17`. Markets are starting the week calm. Your grocery receipt is not.
► The thing nobody is tracking: private-label grocery sales hit a record `$236 billion` last year. Americans are not accepting higher prices. They are quietly routing around them. And the grocery chains know it.
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Why It Matters for Your Money
Here is the math. `$519` a month now versus `$410` a month in 2020. That is `$109` extra every month. `$1,308` a year. Over five years that is `$6,540` in extra grocery spending on the same food. If you had invested that difference at `7%` instead, it would be worth over `$7,600` today. Think about that for a second. That is not a budgeting problem. That is a wealth transfer hiding inside a grocery bag.
Most people absorb the increase without changing a single habit. Same brands. Same sizes. Same store. The Bureau of Labor Statistics calls it consumer inertia. I call it an `$1,300` tax nobody put on a ballot.
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The Wealth Angle
The hidden leverage here is store brands. Consumer Reports tested `50` store-brand grocery items against their name-brand equivalents. In blind taste tests, store brands won or tied on `33` of `50`. The quality is identical. The price is `25%` to `30%` lower. That is not a sacrifice. That is just math.
If you switched your top ten weekly items — coffee, cereal, pasta, canned goods, cheese, bread, frozen vegetables, butter, crackers, cleaning supplies — to store brand, the average household saves between `$1,000` and `$1,500` a year. That is the raise your grocery store was hoping you would never notice.
Private-label brands now account for more than `$1` of every `$5` spent at the grocery store. The people saving money already figured this out. The rest are still paying for a label.
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☕ Key Insight:
The grocery chains are betting you will keep buying the same brands out of habit. The people who switched to store brands kept the difference. The food inside the box did not change. The label did.
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Coffee Break Move
This week, pick five items from your regular grocery list. Buy the store brand instead. Side by side, same meal, same recipe. Most people cannot tell the difference. If you can, switch back on that one item. If you cannot — and on most things you will not — you just found `$500` a year without cutting a single meal or clipping a single coupon.
The comfortable version: you save `$1,200` a year and put it into your brokerage account. The tight version: you save `$100` a month and your grocery run stops making your stomach drop.
Nobody is going to roll back the prices. The store brand is how you roll them back yourself.
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