☕ DrinkCoffeeAndProfit
Smart money moves before breakfast
Inspiration Quote for the Day
“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”
— John Maynard Keynes
The Morning Ritual
Americans Are Buying Houses Again. The Math Still Makes No Sense.

A cousin of mine closed on a house last Friday. `$415,000`. `6.6%` interest rate. `$2,690` a month before property tax and insurance. Two years ago that same house would have cost him `$1,978` a month.

He is not rich. He is not comfortable. But he is exhausted. And somewhere between exhausted and defeated, he made a calculation that is showing up in the numbers right now: waiting started feeling more expensive than buying.

Partner Message
The Fed Is Praying Trump Doesn’t Sign This.
He Might Anyway.

For 50 years, Washington insiders have kept a secret that quietly stole the wealth of every working American.

They inflated the dollar into oblivion.

They printed trillions out of thin air.

They told you the stock market was your retirement plan — while they loaded up on hard assets.

Trump has been saying this for years. He’s the only one with the backbone to do something about it.

And right now, there is growing talk inside Washington circles that he’s preparing an executive order that the globalists, the central bankers, and the entire financial establishment have been dreading for decades.

→ Find out what Trump’s potential executive order actually does — and why the Fed is terrified of it.

Here’s what they’ve been hiding in plain sight:

America owns more gold than almost any nation on earth.

Washington has been valuing it at 1973 prices for over 50 years — $42.22 an ounce — while gold trades above $3,100 today.

One executive order correcting that valuation would trigger the largest wealth transfer in modern American history.

$7,000 gold? $10,000? $20,000?

The last time a president reset America’s relationship with gold, one asset gained 2,300% in under a decade.

CNN won’t cover this. The Fed is praying you never connect the dots.

But Trump’s supporters have always been one step ahead of the establishment.

→ Here’s what happened the last time Washington reset the gold price — and what’s different this time.

In One Sip
Pending home sales rose `1.4%` month-over-month in April and climbed `3.2%` year-over-year, according to the National Association of Realtors. That is three straight months of gains. Buyers are coming back despite affordability remaining near multi-decade lows.
Mortgage rates climbed back above `6.5%` this week. The average `30`-year fixed rate hit `6.65%` as of Thursday, the highest reading since July 2025. A year ago, buyers were waiting for rates to drop below `6%`. That did not happen. They bought anyway.
At `6.65%`, a `$400,000` mortgage costs `$2,560` a month in principal and interest. At `3.5%` — the rate a lot of people locked in during COVID — that same loan cost `$1,796`. That is a `$764`-a-month difference. Multiply by twelve. That is `$9,168` a year in higher payments for the same house.
Median home prices hit `$417,800` in April. That is up from `$398,000` a year ago. Affordability is worse now than it was when buyers were sitting on the sidelines hoping for relief. They stopped hoping. They started signing.
The number buried in the data: most buyers right now are not getting better deals. They are getting tired of waiting. When exhaustion beats arithmetic, that is a psychology shift worth paying attention to.
Why It Matters for Your Money

My cousin is not buying because housing became affordable. He is buying because life kept moving and waiting stopped working.

His rent went up `$180` a month last renewal. His landlord sold the building. The new owner raised it another `$210` six months later. Add `$390` a month to what he was paying two years ago. That is `$4,680` a year in rent increases with nothing to show for it.

Meanwhile, every house he looked at in 2023 is now `$35,000` to `$50,000` more expensive. He waited for affordability to improve. Prices climbed instead. Rates stayed high. Rents kept rising.

At a certain point, the math stopped being about getting a good deal. It became about stopping the bleed. A `$2,690` mortgage does not go up every year the way rent does. Property tax can tick up. Insurance can climb. But the biggest line item — the loan payment — is fixed. That is the edge he is paying for now. Stability, not affordability.

Sound familiar? That is the calculation happening across the country right now. The people buying are not optimists. They are realists who ran out of better options.

The Wealth Angle

I think the bigger pattern here is what happens when people psychologically adjust to permanently higher costs. It does not happen all at once. It happens in stages.

Stage one: Shock. Rates jumped from `3%` to `7%` in eighteen months. People froze. They waited. They assumed this was temporary.

Stage two: Anger. The Fed did not cut rates fast enough. Housing did not correct. Prices kept climbing. Waiting made it worse.

Stage three: Exhaustion. Rent kept rising. Kids got older. Life did not pause. At some point, the cost of waiting — emotionally, financially, logistically — started feeling higher than the cost of buying at a bad rate.

That is where we are now. Stage three. That does not mean housing is affordable. It means Americans are adapting to the fact that it is not going to be.

The question I keep asking myself: if this is what people are willing to pay at `6.65%`, what happens if rates drop to `5.5%`? Demand that is this strong at these prices does not create relief when rates fall. It creates competition. More buyers. Higher bids. Prices climb faster than the monthly savings from the lower rate.

I have watched this pattern before. Buyers return when they give up on waiting, not when affordability improves. And the people who benefit most are the ones who bought before everyone else stopped waiting.

☕ Key Insight:
Americans are buying homes at `6.65%` rates not because the math works but because waiting stopped working. When exhaustion beats arithmetic, that is a market running on psychology, not fundamentals.
Coffee Break Move

If you are renting right now and thinking about buying: do not buy because you are exhausted. Buy because the monthly payment — including the mortgage, tax, insurance, and maintenance — is something you can handle for the next five years even if nothing in your financial life improves.

Run this test: Take your target monthly housing payment. Multiply by `1.3` to account for property tax, insurance, and upkeep. Can you cover that number AND still save `$500` a month? If no, you are not ready. If yes, you have room.

If you are stretched: Waiting for a perfect deal in an imperfect market is not a plan. But neither is buying a house that turns you into a renter of your own mortgage. If the payment eats everything you make, one car repair or one job disruption puts you in a hole you cannot climb out of. Do not mistake stability for safety.

My cousin asked me if he made a mistake. I told him he made a decision. Whether it was the right one depends on what happens to his income over the next three years, not what happens to rates. The house does not care if you feel good about the purchase. It cares if you can make the payment in February when the furnace dies.

That is the only math that matters when the market stops making sense.

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