☕ DrinkCoffeeAndProfit
Smart money moves before breakfast
Inspiration Quote for the Day
“The four most dangerous words in investing are: this time it’s different.”
John Templeton
The Morning Ritual
The Market Has Already Put a Price on Tomorrow. It Is Smaller Than You Think.
The useful thing to know before tomorrow is not who wins. It is what the market is charging to insure against the answer. That number is public, and it was set by people with money on the line.
Contracts on the S&P 500 that expire Wednesday were priced at Thursday’s close for a move of about 1.3% in either direction. That range covers four trading days, not one night.
What the week is really selling is protection. The message below is from a partner, on a different kind of it.
· · · From Our Partners · · ·
Most people read the DOJ’s “cash isn’t property” argument and thought it was about paper bills.
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That legal argument applies to any money the government decides to target. Including the savings sitting in your IRA or 401(k) right now.
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The DOJ just handed them the legal argument to do it.
Greece raided private pensions. Cyprus took directly from bank accounts. Poland nationalized retirement funds.
Every time, people said “that can’t happen here.” Every time, they were wrong.
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In One Sip
► Options expiring Wednesday priced a move of about 1.3% either way, measured at the October 29 close
► That range covers four trading days, not only election night
► Since 1990 the S&P 500 has usually moved less than 1% on the day after a midterm
► The exceptions ran both ways: up about 2% after 2018, down about as much after 2022
► In 2022 the vote was on November 8 and control of the House was not settled until November 16
Why It Matters for Your Money
An implied move is not a forecast. It is the rent the market charges for uncertainty over a fixed window, and anyone can read it.
1.3% over four sessions is more than an ordinary stretch and nowhere near double one. The market is pricing a known date on the calendar, not a crisis.
The shape underneath is worth a look too. Before Friday’s open, a put and a call at the same level were quoted two to one in the put’s favour.
That is normal before any scheduled event. Insurance against a fall costs more than a bet on a rise. One of the two is bought by people who already own the thing.
At the October 28 close the nine day volatility measure sat below the thirty day one. The market expected the fortnight around the vote to be calmer than the month.
The part that gets forgotten is the gap afterwards. In 2022 the vote was on a Tuesday and the House was not settled for eight more days. A market can price a date. It cannot price a delay.
☕ Key Insight:
The number on the screen is not a prediction about tomorrow. It is the price of not knowing, and this week it is being quoted cheaply.
The quieter question under all of it is who holds what, and on whose ledger. A partner takes that up below.
· · · A Word From Our Sponsor · · ·
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The Coffee Break Move
Do not set a price alert for Wednesday morning. An alert turns a number you were never going to act on into a seven in the morning decision.
Check instead whether anything in your accounts moves on its own this week. A standing transfer, an automatic rebalance, a dividend reinvestment that lands on a Wednesday. Those are the trades that happen without you.
If one falls in the next five days and you would rather it did not, move the date. It is a two minute job, and the only election related thing on this page worth doing.
A date on the calendar is the easy kind of change. The partner below argues for the other kind.
· · · Paid Partnership · · ·
Why does the richest man in the world keep turning up at President Trump’s side?
Back in May, Elon Musk flew to Beijing on Air Force One alongside the President, one of only two CEOs, out of the 17 on the trip, given a seat on the President’s plane.
A year earlier, he was at Trump’s side in Riyadh, where the President personally introduced him to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
And he was in the room again in September, seated at the head table with Trump and Xi Jinping when the Chinese leader arrived for a state dinner at the White House.
Yet while the media obsesses over his rockets and robots, almost nobody is asking why he keeps showing up at these major political events.
Without a vote in Congress, and with almost no coverage in the financial press, President Trump has set in motion what I believe is the first reset of America’s money since 1974.
Assembled through a flurry of executive orders and a landmark pact signed by 13 nations inside the State Department. And as you’ll see, I believe Elon Musk sits right at the center of it.
The last time America reset its money on this scale, by some estimates it minted more than a thousand new millionaires a day... while quietly hollowing out the savings of millions who never understood what was happening.
And on December 14, when world leaders gather at Trump’s Miami resort, I believe this new monetary order could be presented as a done deal.
Trumps Dollar Reset
In my documentary, you’ll discover:
► How Trump’s monetary reset connects everything from his tariff wars to his obsession with Greenland, and why I believe it’s all part of a larger plan to replace the petrodollar.
► Why the U.S. government is buying ownership stakes in tiny American mining companies, a move not seen since the depths of World War II.
► How the most popular investments of the last decade could be among the worst bets of the new monetary order.
► The five companies I believe sit at the heart of what’s unfolding, including the name and ticker of my No. 1 move before December 14.
Watch the full documentary here.
Good investing,
Porter Stansberry
The claims above are the advertiser’s own.
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One Last Sip
Tomorrow is an event with a date on it, which makes it the easiest kind for a market to handle. The hard ones arrive without warning and without a price.
By Thursday the commentary will have settled on a story, and the story will fit whatever the index did. That is a feature of writing after the fact, not a finding.
An account built for the next twenty years has lived through midterms before. Wednesday is a day in that record, not a verdict on it.

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