☕ DrinkCoffeeAndProfit
Smart money moves before breakfast
Inspiration Quote for the Day
“Beware of little expenses. A small leak will sink a great ship.”
— Benjamin Franklin
The Morning Ritual
Your Paycheck Just Lost a Race It Was Winning for Three Years

My brother-in-law texted me last night. He got his raise. `3.5%`. He was proud of it. I did not have the heart to tell him prices rose `3.8%` over the same twelve months. His raise was a pay cut wearing a nicer shirt.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed it: real average hourly earnings fell -`0.3%` year over year in April. First time paychecks have shrunk in real terms since April 2023. The three-year winning streak is over. And the next confidence number drops this morning.
Partner Message

Editor’s Note: Former tech executive and angel investor Jeff Brown — picked Bitcoin before it jumped as high as 52,400%, Tesla before it jumped as high as 2,150%, and Nvidia before it jumped as high as 32,000%. Today, he’ll show you how to claim a stake in Elon Musk’s upcoming IPO — BEFORE the company goes public on June 12. Click here to see the details or read more below.

Dear Reader,

The countdown for the biggest and most anticipated IPO in history has begun.

The date is set for June 12…

But you DO NOT have to wait until the IPO day to claim a stake.

Click here and I’ll show you how to legally “skip the line.”

Look, on June 12…

For the first time ever…

Hundreds of millions of investors around the world…

Will have a chance to buy shares of one of Elon’s most successful companies...

A company that has revolutionized space exploration in such a big way…

That it basically has no competitors.

What do you think is going to happen on that very first day of trading?

I predict we’re going to see the biggest buying spree on the first day of trading we’ve ever seen.

That’s why Shay Boloor, chief market strategist for Futurum Equities, predicted…

“It’s going to be the craziest IPO in the history of the stock market.”

There will be so much buying pressure…

That I wouldn’t be surprised if shares double, triple, or more on the first day of trading.

That’s why I’m pounding the table that we need to get in now…

BEFORE the IPO…

Before they open the doors to millions of investors around the world.

Click here and I’ll show you how.

We have so much to look forward to,
Jeff Brown
Founder & CEO, Brownstone Research
In One Sip
► April CPI hit `3.8%` year over year, up from `3.3%` in March. That is the highest inflation rate in nearly three years.
► Real average hourly earnings fell -`0.5%` month over month and -`0.3%` year over year. For the first time since 2023, inflation is eating all wage gains.
► Gas prices are up `44%` year over year. The national average is `$4.50` a gallon. California is above `$6.00`.
► Michigan consumer sentiment dropped to `44.8` in May. That is the lowest reading in `74` years of data.
► Conference Board consumer confidence data drops today at 10 AM Eastern. Last month it edged up to `92.8`. Traders will watch whether the gas squeeze has reversed that. If it has, the Fed loses its last argument for standing still.
Why It Matters for Your Money

Start at the paycheck. The median American household earns about `$4,480` a month after taxes. A -`0.3%` real wage decline means your paycheck bought `$13` less this month than a year ago. Over a year, `$161`. Not a crisis alone. But stack it.

Gas alone costs you an extra `$54` a month if you drive the national average of `12,000` miles a year in a `25` MPG car. Groceries are up `3.2%`. On a `$900` monthly grocery bill, that is `$29` more per month. The 30-year mortgage rate jumped to `6.41%` last week. On a `$300,000` loan, that rate versus `5.5%` costs you an extra `$175` a month.

Add it up: `$258` more per month just on gas, groceries, and housing. That is `$3,096` a year. Your raise did not cover it. That is the math your brokerage app does not show you.
The Wealth Angle

I think the stock market is ignoring the most important chart in finance right now. Consumer discretionary stocks, equal-weighted, versus the S&P 500 just hit the lowest ratio in `20` years. The companies that depend on you spending money are getting crushed relative to the index. The index looks fine. The businesses that sell to your kitchen table do not.

`76%` of Americans told Gallup that economic conditions are getting worse. Only `20%` said better. That is worse than during COVID. Worse than after the financial crisis. And `7%` of retirees recently went back to work. That number was under `3%` before the Iran conflict started.

I have seen this movie. The market celebrates earnings from seven tech companies. The other 493 quietly erode. Then one quarter the erosion shows up in guidance and the index reprices what the kitchen table knew months ago.
☕ Key Insight:
Real wages flipped negative for the first time in three years while the S&P 500 sits near all-time highs. The last time that gap was this wide was mid-2022. Stocks fell -`19%` over the next five months.
Coffee Break Move

If you are comfortable: Check your high-yield savings rate. The best accounts still pay `4.10%` APY. If your cash is parked below `4%`, move it before breakfast. That is free money in a world where the Fed is not cutting anytime soon.

If you are stretched: Pull up your last three credit card statements. Every dollar of revolving debt just got more expensive. Pay the highest-rate card first. Even `$50` extra this month saves you real money before the next repricing.

I looked at that gas receipt in my wallet from last May. `$3.14`. Good reminder. Your raise was supposed to keep you ahead of the price race. It didn’t. Your job now is to make sure your savings do.

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