Two agencies decide your January, and they do not announce on the same day. Social Security publishes the raise in October. Medicare publishes the premium in November. The second is subtracted from the first before the money moves.
The trustees put the 2027 premium at $209.50, up $6.60. If that holds, roughly one dollar in eleven of the average raise goes back before it arrives. The projection is not binding. Last year the premium went from $185.00 to $202.90, a jump of 9.7%.
The premium is not the only line on that letter. The Part B deductible was $283 in 2026, and the trustees project $292 for 2027. You pay that out of pocket before Medicare covers an office visit.
Then comes the part that catches people out. Your 2027 premium is not set by your 2027 income. It is set by your 2025 tax return, the one filed this spring. A home sale, a Roth conversion or a severance cheque in that single year can move you into a surcharge tier.
That surcharge is a cliff rather than a slope. One dollar over a threshold moves you into the next tier for the whole year. The notice arrives in November alongside the premium, and for many people it is the first they hear of it.
One protection sits under all of this. For most people drawing a benefit, the dollar rise in the premium cannot exceed the dollar rise in the payment. A raise can be swallowed, and it is not supposed to go backwards. That protection does not extend to the surcharge tiers.
You can read your own answer before either agency sends it. Find your 2025 tax return and read the adjusted gross income line, then add any tax exempt interest. That sum is the figure Medicare uses for 2027. If it sits close to a threshold, you will know before the letter does.