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Smart money moves before breakfast
Inspiration Quote for the Day
“Inflation is taxation without legislation.”
— Milton Friedman
The Morning Ritual
Someone Raised Your Grocery Bill. You Weren’t Even in the Room.
My wife came home from the store last Saturday and set one bag on the counter. She said it cost `$74`. I looked inside. Tomatoes. Ground beef. A block of cheese. Bread. Coffee. A bag of rice. I asked her if she forgot something. She had not. That was the whole bag.
Here is what nobody on the news is explaining clearly. Tariffs signed in 2025 take `12` to `18` months to reach grocery shelves. That window is opening right now. April’s grocery prices jumped `0.7%` in a single month. That is the sharpest monthly increase since 2022. And economists say the real surge has not even started yet.
Partner Message
I’ll be blunt.
What makes me furious about this SpaceX story is not the company itself.
It’s the way ordinary investors are almost always pushed to the back of the line.
The institutions hear first.
The insiders position early.
The banks work to secure access.
And then the public gets the cleaned-up version after the best part of the move may already be behind it.
That’s how this game is usually played.
But every so often, there’s still a narrow opening for people willing to act before the crowd.
A small window before June 12 to look at what may be one of the more compelling backdoor opportunities tied to this whole SpaceX story.
And again, I want to stress this:
I’m not interested in hype.
I’m interested in positioning.
I’m interested in finding the part of the story that the media has not fully priced in yet.
If you want to learn more about it while this opportunity still looks early, click here now.
Yours for peace, prosperity, and liberty, AEIOU,
Dr. Mark Skousen
Macroeconomic Strategist, The Oxford Club
In One Sip
Grocery prices rose `0.7%` in April alone. That is the sharpest one-month jump since 2022. Year over year, food at home is up `2.9%`. Economists warn prices could climb `4%` to `4.5%` by December as tariffs fully land.
Tomato prices surged `39.7%` year over year. A `17%` tariff on Mexican tomatoes plus crop damage in Mexico doubled the hit. Seafood is up `6.2%`. Beef remains tight. Coffee costs keep climbing.
Steel and aluminum tariffs are now raising packaging costs. Canned goods, frozen vegetables, and sodas in aluminum cans are all getting more expensive. Carbonated drink prices rose `3.7%` for the year.
The S&P 500 sits at `7,580`. The 10-year yield is at `4.43%`. The VIX is at `16.05`. Wall Street is calm. Your grocery receipt is not.
Here is the buried story. The USMCA trade agreement is up for renegotiation in July 2026. About `63%` of agricultural imports from Canada and Mexico are currently tariff-exempt. If that changes, your next trip to the produce aisle gets worse.
Why It Matters for Your Money
Let me do the dollar math on my wife’s bag. A year ago those same items cost about `$54`. Saturday they cost `$74`. That is `$20` more for one trip. We go to the store twice a week. That is `$40` a week extra. Over a year, that is `$2,080` more on groceries alone. Nobody gave us a raise to cover it.
Now here is the part most people miss. Tariffs do not show up on your receipt. There is no line that says “trade policy surcharge.” The price just goes up and you assume it is inflation. But this is policy-driven cost. Somebody in a room decided to put a `17%` tariff on Mexican tomatoes. You were not in that room. You just pay for it every Tuesday at the register.
I think what bothers me most is the timing. Wages are running at `3.6%`. Grocery inflation may hit `4.5%` by December. That means your food budget is outrunning your paycheck. And gas at `$4.50` a gallon makes every trip to the store cost more before you even walk inside.
Sound familiar? A Purdue agricultural economist told reporters the full impact of the tariffs has not even arrived yet. Most of what you see on shelves today reflects costs from before the trade war. The real price shock is somewhere between now and October.
The Wealth Angle
This is where I get frustrated. The companies that sell you groceries are not losing money. Corporate earnings are near record highs. The S&P 500 is near all-time highs. The cost increase flows downstream until it lands on the person with the least pricing power. That person is you, standing in the checkout line.
I do not think most people understand how shrinkflation works. The price stays the same. The box gets smaller. The cereal bag that was `16` ounces last year is `13.5` ounces this year. You do not notice until you realize you are buying cereal every two weeks instead of every three. That is a hidden `15%` price increase with no label on it.
Think about that for a second. The tariff on steel and aluminum does not just make a car more expensive. It makes the can your beans come in more expensive. It makes the foil on your yogurt more expensive. It makes the shelf you buy it off more expensive. Every link in the chain adds a little. By the time it reaches your cart, it adds a lot.
The savings rate is `2.6%`. Credit card debt is at `$1.25` trillion. And the biggest wave of tariff-driven food inflation has not landed yet. I would rather be prepared six months early than surprised six months late.
☕ Key Insight:
Tariffs signed in 2025 take `12` to `18` months to reach your grocery cart. That clock is ringing now. Economists say food inflation could hit `4.5%` by December. Your paycheck is not keeping up.
Coffee Break Move
If you are comfortable: Build a three-month grocery buffer. Pick the five items your family buys every week. Stock up when they go on sale. Canned goods, rice, pasta, coffee, and cooking oil all store well. Buy now at today’s prices. You are essentially shorting the tariff timeline.
If you are stretched: Switch one brand this week. Store-brand canned tomatoes cost about `40%` less than the name brand and often come from the same packing facility. Do the same with cereal, rice, and pasta. That swap alone saves most families `$15` to `$20` a week. That is over `$800` a year.
My wife looked at that `$74` receipt and asked me when prices would come back down. I told her the honest answer. They probably will not. Our job is not to wait for cheaper tomatoes. Our job is to adjust before the next wave hits the shelf.

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