☕ DrinkCoffeeAndProfit
Smart money moves before breakfast
Inspiration Quote for the Day
“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”
— Warren Buffett
Partner Message

Wall Street is calling it the "Warsh Shock." Here's how to profit from it…

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Nearly half of the world's biggest money allocators are scrambling to reposition for what they expect to be the most volatile market in years.

Larry Benedict isn't scrambling. He's seen this before.

He says the Warsh Shock is setting up the most predictable wealth-building window he's seen in 20 years… and there's one ticker right at the center of it.

Click here to see how Larry is playing it.
The Morning Ritual
The Biggest IPO in History Just Filed. Here Is What It Actually Means for Your Money.

My cousin called me Wednesday night. He has not bought a stock since he lost money on GameStop in 2021. Swore off the market entirely. He wanted to know how to get into the SpaceX IPO before it was “too late.”

I have heard that phrase before. I heard it in 1999 about Cisco. I heard it in 2021 about everything. When someone who quit the market calls you at dinner asking how to buy a `$2` trillion company before it has ever turned an annual profit, that is not a buy signal. That is a sentiment reading. And it is worth paying attention to.
In One Sip
► SpaceX filed its S-1 with the SEC on Wednesday. The company is seeking a valuation between `$1.75` trillion and `$2` trillion and aims to raise up to `$75` billion. That would make it the largest IPO in stock market history.
► The filing shows `$18.7` billion in 2025 revenue and a `$4.9` billion loss. At `$2` trillion, the company would be priced at `107` times revenue. Nvidia — the most in-demand stock on earth — trades at roughly `25` times. Apple trades at `8`.
► The filing bundles SpaceX, Starlink, xAI, and X (formerly Twitter) into a single entity. Starlink — the satellite internet business with over `4` million subscribers — is the financial engine. The rest is narrative.
► Every major brokerage app in America will feature the SPCX ticker the morning it lists. Fidelity, Schwab, and Robinhood are all running pre-IPO interest campaigns. The demand machine is already running.
► The number that matters most: the last time a single IPO generated this much retail enthusiasm before the first trade was Rivian in November 2021. It opened at `$106`. Today it trades near `$14`. The company was real. The price was not.
Why It Matters for Your Money

Here is the dollar math nobody is running right now.

If you put `$5,000` into SpaceX at a `$2` trillion valuation and the company eventually trades at a more normal `25x` revenue multiple — which is where Nvidia sits today, and Nvidia is printing record profits — the stock would need to fall roughly `75%` to reach that level on current revenue. Your `$5,000` becomes `$1,250`.

That does not mean the company fails. It means the price was wrong for the math. Cisco in 2000 was a phenomenal company. If you bought it at the peak, you waited `15` years to break even. The technology worked. The entry price did not.

I think the bigger risk for most people reading this is not SpaceX itself. It is the behavioral pattern that SpaceX is triggering. The IPO is arriving at a moment when brokerage apps have trained a generation of investors to feel like they are “missing out” if they do not act on day one. That feeling is not an investment thesis. It is a marketing outcome. The notification on your phone is designed to create urgency. The urgency is real. The opportunity might not be.

Sound familiar? It should. That is exactly how the peak of every speculative cycle has felt for the past `25` years.
The Wealth Angle

I have been investing long enough to notice when the language changes. In 2021, people said “I believe in the mission.” In 1999, they said “this is the new economy.” Today, my cousin said “I just want to own a piece of the future.”

That sentence is a tell. When regular people start talking about owning “the future” instead of owning a stock at a price that makes mathematical sense, the market has crossed from investing into identity purchasing. You are no longer buying a share. You are buying membership in a story.

The institutional investors who got the allocation at the offering price have a different entry than you will at 9:30 AM on the Nasdaq. They are often selling into the pop you are buying. That is not a conspiracy. That is how every IPO in the past `40` years has worked. The retail buyer pays the highest price in the room and calls it “getting in early.”

My cousin asked me if that was cynical. I told him it was arithmetic.
☕ Key Insight:
SpaceX at `$2` trillion is `107x` revenue on a company that has never posted an annual profit. The technology is real. The price assumes everything works on a timeline nobody can guarantee. When everyone feels early, nobody is.
Coffee Break Move

Before you open your brokerage app the morning SPCX lists, write one number on a piece of paper: the maximum dollar amount you could lose entirely and still pay your bills next month. Not the amount you want to invest. The amount you could set on fire. That is your position size for any IPO.

If you are comfortable: Wait `90` days. Let the lockup expiration, the first earnings call, and the analyst initiations establish a real trading range. SpaceX is not going anywhere. Neither is your money if you park it in a `5%` Treasury for three months while you watch.

If you are stretched: Do not let a headline make you feel behind. If you are carrying credit card debt above `20%`, paying that down is a guaranteed `20%+` return no IPO can match. Your brokerage app will not show you that opportunity. I am showing it to you right now.

My cousin asked me if I was buying on day one. I told him I would probably buy eventually. After the first earnings call. After the lockup expires. After I see what the company looks like when nobody is watching.

He said that sounded boring. I told him boring is how you still have money when the next one comes along.

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