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☕ DrinkCoffeeAndProfit
Smart money moves before breakfast
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Inspiration Quote for the Day
“A man who won’t tell himself the truth about his money can’t be told the truth about anything else.”
— James Baldwin
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The Morning Ritual
45 Million Americans Hit the Road This Weekend. Their Gas Receipts Tell a Different Story.
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I watched my neighbor load up his truck Friday afternoon. Cooler in the bed. Camping chairs. A Costco bag of hot dogs that cost more than steak did three summers ago. He waved. I waved back. Neither of us mentioned that the same trip cost `$180` less in gas last Memorial Day.
That is the deal America made with itself this weekend. Forty-five million people are traveling. A record, according to AAA. Gas is `$4.56` a gallon. Consumer confidence just hit the lowest reading in `74` years of measurement. Both facts are true at the same time. The distance between them is where the real money story lives.
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In One Sip
► AAA projects `45` million Americans will travel at least `50` miles this weekend. That is a record. `39` million of them are driving.
► The national gas average is `$4.56` per gallon, up +`$1.38` from Memorial Day 2025. GasBuddy says `90%` of the increase traces directly to the Iran conflict.
► Memorial Day BBQ staples are up `13%` year over year. Six ears of corn: `$5.90`, up from `$2.97` last year. Ground beef: +`14.5%`. Steak: +`16.1%`.
► The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to `44.8` in May. That is the lowest reading in the survey’s `74`-year history. Lower than the 2008 crash. Lower than peak COVID.
► `57%` of Americans say high prices are hurting their finances. The S&P 500 is near record highs above `7,500`. That gap is the buried story of this summer.
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Why It Matters for Your Money
Start at the pump. A year ago you paid `$3.17` a gallon. Today it is `$4.56`. If your family drives 12,000 miles a year at 25 MPG, that `$1.38` gap costs you `$662` a year. Nobody voted on it. It just showed up on your credit card statement.
Now the grocery cart. Your cookout costs `13%` more than last year. Corn nearly doubled. Ground beef jumped `14.5%`. A family spending `$250` on a Memorial Day weekend of grilling, gas, and a day trip is paying `$40` to `$60` more than twelve months ago. Multiply that by every weekend this summer.
The Dow just crossed `50,000`. The S&P 500 closed above `7,500` for the first time ever. And `57%` of Americans say prices are hurting them. Your brokerage app is throwing a party. Your kitchen table is doing harder math.
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The Wealth Angle
I think the spending is real but the confidence behind it is gone. Americans are not traveling because they feel good. They are traveling because they refuse to feel bad. One is strength. The other is a credit card balance that lands in June.
Michigan sentiment at `44.8` is not a dip. It is the floor falling out. Lower than 2022 when inflation hit `9.1%`. Lower than 2009 when the banks were on life support. Sentiment this low with spending this high has only one resolution: something gives. I’ve seen this movie. In 2007, Americans spent like kings right up until they couldn’t.
My neighbor’s truck pulled out at 6 AM. Full tank. Full cooler. Full credit card. The stock market would call that bullish. I am not so sure.
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☕ Key Insight:
Consumer sentiment just set a `74`-year low while `45` million Americans hit the road for a record travel weekend. The last time spending and confidence diverged this hard was late 2007. The spending looked normal then too.
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Coffee Break Move
If you are comfortable: Before you fire up the grill, open your credit card app. Check the balance. Not the available credit. The balance. If it is higher than Memorial Day last year, that is your real inflation number. Park some cash in a high-yield savings account paying `4%`+ APY while rates hold.
If you are stretched: Pick the highest-rate card you carry. Pay `$50` extra on it this week. At `22%` APR, that saves you more than `$11` in interest over the year. Small moves now beat big regret in September.
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