☕ DrinkCoffeeAndProfit
Smart money moves before breakfast
Inspiration Quote for the Day
“Beware of little expenses. A small leak will sink a great ship.”
— Benjamin Franklin
The Morning Ritual
Your Coworker Who Looks Fine Financially? They’re Probably Not.
A friend of mine just got back from Cancun. Posted the photos. Nice hotel, ocean view, the whole thing. I asked how the trip was. “Amazing,” she said. Then quieter: “I put most of it on the card. I’ll figure it out later.”
She is not irresponsible. She has a solid job. But she stopped believing that waiting would make things cheaper. So she booked the trip. And she is not alone. Walmart just reported `$177.8` billion in quarterly revenue. Beat estimates. Target is up `32%` in a year. Retailers are having a record earnings season. And yet two-thirds of Americans told CBS News they feel financially stressed. The people spending the money are the same people who say they cannot afford it.
That contradiction is not a paradox. It is a behavioral shift. And it is quietly reshaping how money moves in this country.
Partner Message
Editor’s Note: The hedge fund legend who beat the S&P 500 by more than 18 times in 2025 on a return-on-cash basis and achieved 20 consecutive winning years says Trump is preparing his biggest market move yet. He’s calling it “Project 2026” — and he’s revealing the ONE ticker positioned to capture it all. Click here to see the details or read more below from our colleagues at The Opportunistic Trader...
Dear Reader,
When the Magnificent Seven soared to record highs in 2025, billions flooded into NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, and the rest.
Then came Liberation Day.
And the market went down by $2 trillion in a single session.
But Larry Benedict — the man who went 13-for-13 after Trump’s election — saw something different.
He saw money in motion and he positioned his readers in a trade for an almost 60% gain.
“When markets shift,” Larry says, “money doesn’t disappear. It just moves from one place to another.”
That’s how he’s traded for 40 years, through the dot-com crash, through 2008 and through COVID.
While others watched stock prices, Larry tracked where billions were flowing.
And right now, he’s identified something he’s calling “Project 2026.”
A massive wealth transfer he believes Trump is about to trigger — moving money out of the concentrated few and into the forgotten 493 stocks in the S&P.
Larry has pinpointed ONE ticker sitting at the center of where that money is headed.
It’s not a tech giant. Not a resource play. Not anything trading at record highs.
It’s the ticker that captures the entire move — no matter which individual stocks win or lose.
And he’s revealing the name and ticker in an exclusive interview — completely free.
Regards,
Lauren Wingfield
Managing Editor, The Opportunistic Trader
In One Sip
► The S&P 500 closed at a record `7,520`. The Dow hit `50,644`, also a record. The VIX sits at `16.29`. Markets are calm. Consumer balance sheets are not.
► Walmart posted `$177.8` billion in Q1 revenue, beating estimates. But management warned that lower-income shoppers are showing financial stress. The company absorbed `$175` million in extra fuel costs during the quarter.
► April retail sales came in at `$757.1` billion, up `4.9%` year over year. Of 25 S&P 500 retailers that reported, `88%` beat revenue estimates. The consumer keeps swiping.
► The April PCE inflation report drops this morning at 8:30 AM. Economists expect headline PCE at `3.8%` year over year and core PCE at `3.3%`. Both would be the highest readings since early 2024.
► Oil bounced back above `$90` a barrel overnight after Reuters reported new U.S. strikes on an Iranian military site. Gas prices remain near `$4.50` a gallon nationally. The fuel tax on household budgets is not going away.
Why It Matters for Your Money
The reason Walmart can post record revenue while its own customers are struggling is simple: people are buying what they need even when they cannot comfortably afford it. Walmart absorbed `$175` million in extra fuel costs this quarter. It ate that margin so you would keep walking through the door. And you did. So did everyone else.
This is the new math. April retail sales rose `4.9%` year over year. But inflation is running near `3.8%`. Strip out price increases and the real growth in what Americans actually bought is closer to `1%`. You are spending more dollars on roughly the same amount of stuff. That is not growth. That is inflation dressed up in a revenue beat.
Now look at how people are paying. Credit card debt sits at `$1.25` trillion. The average APR is `21%`. A household carrying `$6,700` in revolving debt pays `$1,407` a year in interest alone. That is money that goes nowhere. No vacation. No retirement account. No patio set. Just a monthly transfer to your bank.
Lowe’s CEO said this week that this is the hardest housing market he has seen since the financial crisis. People will buy a drill. They will not redo the kitchen. That tells you where the real budget line is.
The Wealth Angle
Wall Street just had a near-perfect earnings season. S&P 500 earnings grew `25%` year over year. `80%` of companies beat estimates. The market is at record highs because corporate America is making money. That part is real.
But here is what the earnings calls quietly confirmed. The consumer spending those companies are celebrating is increasingly debt-funded. Walmart’s low-income shoppers are under pressure. Younger consumers face what Circana called “mounting financial pressures” from rising living costs, a slowing job market, and the return of student loan payments. The spending looks strong because the pain is still hidden inside credit card statements.
The PCE report landing this morning is the next test. If headline inflation comes in at `3.8%` as expected, that confirms what your grocery receipt already tells you. Prices are accelerating again. And the Fed, under new Chair Kevin Warsh, has kept rates steady all year. If this number surprises to the upside, the conversation shifts from “when do they cut” to “do they hike.” The bond market is already pricing that possibility. The stock market has not.
☕ Key Insight:
Retail earnings look strong because companies are absorbing costs and consumers are absorbing debt. Neither can do that forever. The gap between record stock prices and record consumer stress always closes. The only question is which side moves first.
Coffee Break Move
If you are comfortable: Pull up your monthly spending from the last 90 days. Not the budget you planned. The actual numbers. Add up subscriptions, dining, and impulse purchases. Most people find `$200` to `$400` a month they did not realize was leaving. Redirect half of that to your highest-rate debt. At `21%` APR, every `$100` you pay down saves you `$21` a year in interest. It compounds in your favor for once.
If you are stretched: Open your credit card app right now. Look at the minimum payment. Then look at the interest charge. If the interest is more than half the minimum, you are barely touching principal. Even `$25` extra this month changes the trajectory.
My friend is back from Cancun. The tan is fading. The credit card balance is not. The real difference between people who build wealth and people who look wealthy is not income. It is what happens in the 30 days after the trip.

Keep Reading